HMM: Polling fantasies heavily biased against Trump.

HMM: Polling fantasies heavily biased against Trump. [archive]

At National Review, Dan McLaughlin, formerly of RedState.com, gloats [archive] over a recent poll by Reuters/Ipsos [archive] purporting to show Hillary Clinton well ahead of Donald Trump . . .

Of the 1,276 respondents, 628 (49.2%) were Democrats, just 498 (39.0%) were Republicans, and 112 (8.8%) were independents, and the remaining 38 (3.0%) were members of another party.

A 10.2% margin of Democrats over Republicans? . . .

Gallup has reliable long-term historical data on party affiliations, [archive] and as of the latest data in late May, the split is 28% to 27% for Democrats over Republicans. That would be a 1% advantage to the Democrats, not 10.2%.

The numbers fluctuate, however, so one wonders how reliable they really are.

We’ll also deal with that flawed Fox News poll [archive] referred to by NRO. It shows Clinton ahead of Trump 42% to 39% in the direct match-up, or also up by 39% to 36% when Gary Johnson is thrown in. And then we look behind the curtain for the answer to the following question: “When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?”

The Fox News poll split is a 6% advantage to the Democrats, 41% to 35%, over the Republican respondents, as compared to an even split in the previous polls by this outlet. Take that bias away, and we have at least a statistical tie, or, more likely, a slight Trump lead.

Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll
Published: July 26, 1988 . . .

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.